Multivariate Statistical Applications for Quantifying Contribution of Seismic Data to Production Prediction in the Wolfcamp, Midland Basin
Speaker: William M. Bashore, DrillingInfo
A workflow with the objective of quantifying the added-value of seismic-based information to improved prediction of oil production in the Wolfcamp section of the Midland Basin is described. A variety of multivariate statistical algorithms are employed in the workflow: unsupervised and supervised classification, categorical-based non-linear regression, and spatial regression for well-log estimation. Porosity is estimated from elastic inversion volumes within the context of lithotype classification originating with well logs. Porosity feet becomes the primary driver in production prediction. Two parallel analyses are performed. In the first, only well-logs are used to predict porosity at along all vertical wellbores. As a proxy for the impact of well spacing, different minimum search distances are investigated for porosity estimation error and associated error in prediction cumulative oil production at six months. The second analysis is similar except, along each wellbore, porosity is extracted from the seismic porosity volume and then used as soft data. These two analysis flows are then applied to the horizontal wellbores, which have no original porosity logs, for comparison as to how well each predicts known cumulative production. The incorporation of seismic-based information does show significant error reduction.
Bill is a Senior Research Fellow at Drillinginfo addressing technical challenges such as probabilistic decline curve analysis, production allocation, and multivariate statistical / machine learning analyses. Prior to his current position, Bill was the SVP of Global Analytics, where he built up the analytics business unit and initiated the play assessment product offerings. He continues to provide a technical role on the corporate Executive Leadership Team.
Bill came to Drillinginfo with the Transform acquisition. At Transform, he was the principal author of data analysis and multivariate statistics, waveform classification, many of the seismic processing options, and the original synthetics tools. Prior to Transform, Bill was VP of Exploration Services at Veritas after the acquisition of Reservoir Characterization Research and Consulting (RC Squared). Bill was the co-founder and CEO of RC Squared, where he was the principal architect of 3D stochastic property modeling and seismic inversion and integration. Bill began his career after graduate school at Chevron, spending twelve years in a variety of positions in E&P operations and at the upstream research facility. Bill holds BS degrees in Geophysics and Geology and an MS in Geophysics from the University of Utah. Additionally, he has an MBA from California State University – Fullerton.